About 13 million people will lose health insurance in the next 10 years if the House-passed Affordable Care Act replacement plan is enacted,according to a new reportout Tuesday from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ office of the actuary.

The estimate, while hardly rosy, is still about 10 million fewer people than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated would lose coverage under the American Health Care Act (AHCA), now being considered by the Senate.

“All these kinds of projections are uncertain and require lots of assumptions, so the range between what the actuary is saying and what CBO estimated is within the realm of what’s possible,” says Larry Levitt, executive vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

A lot depends upon how many states would expand Medicaid to all of its lowest income residents under the current situation as opposed to how many would do so under the AHCA, Levitt says.

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